New risk calculators to predict people at high risk of heart attacks and stroke

Cambridge-led working groups and the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Cardiovascular risk collaboration have developed new risk calculators that can better identify people at high risk of heart and circulatory diseases. These calculators are for use across the UK and Europe1, 2.

The original research focused solely on predicting and preventing mortality, using data from the 1980s. But now more people survive heart attacks and strokes than die from them, especially younger people, so we need to use risk scores of people having non-fatal as well as fatal CVD within 10 years. The SCORE2 calculator was developed using data from nearly 700,000 participants from 45 different studies and has been tailored for use amongst individuals aged 40-69 in the UK and across different European regions.

The SCORE2-OP calculator was developed using data from around 360,000 participants and has been tailored for use amongst older individuals aged over 70 years in the UK and across Europe.

The calculators enable doctors to identify who is at risk of having a heart attack or stroke in the next 5 or 10 years by using known risk factors such as age, sex, cholesterol levels, blood pressure and smoking. They are much-needed upgrades from the previous prediction tools that were developed using data before 1986 and which underestimated the cardiovascular risk in many countries.

The new SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP risk calculators now consider current trends in heart and circulatory diseases, can predict both fatal and non-fatal conditions and are adaptable to countries with different levels of risk.

People who are flagged as having an increased risk can be offered personalised preventative treatment, such as drugs which reduce cholesterol or lifestyle advice to lower their risk.

The tools fit seamlessly into current prevention programmes with substantial real-world impact by improving the early prevention of cardiovascular diseases across the UK and Europe before they strike.

SCORE2 has been adopted by the new European Guidelines on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Clinical Practice (August 2021).

What this study adds:

  • Improved and up-to-date risk calculators tailored for use amongst individuals from aged 40 years.
  • The new calculators take account of current trends in heart and circulatory diseases, can predict both fatal and non-fatal conditions and are adaptable to European countries with different levels of risk.

Impact of the research:

  • The calculators enable doctors to predict who is at risk of having a heart attack or stroke in the next 5 or 10 years.
  • People flagged at high risk can be offered personalised preventative treatment, such as statins, or lifestyle advice to lower their risk.
  • SCORE2 and SOCRE-OP are recommended for use by clinicians across Europe in the newly published (August 2021) European Guidelines on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Clinical Practice.
  • This research generated major media coverage nationally and globally, including several national UK papers (eg Times, Daily Telegraph, Daily Mirror, Sun, Daily Express) and ~50 regional newspapers.

1 European Heart Journal 2021 PMID:3412017
2 European Heart Journal 2021 PMID:34120185

 

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